With training camp approaching, the Pittsburgh Penguins‘ roster is beginning to take shape.

The trouble is, there are too many players and too little spots to fill.

As it stands, the Penguins currently sit just $1.05 million below the salary cap, and they have a surplus of players. Their top-six is likely set – at least, as it stands now – and it appears that the goaltending duo might be as well, even if the organization has goaltending depth to spare.

However, the Penguins have a surplus of both forwards and defensemen to round out their bottom-six and bottom-pairing. They currently have nine forwards against the cap competing for six forward positions in the bottom-six, while they have three defensemen plus three more on two-way contracts competing for three spots.

In other words: It appears likely that at least one contract is on its way out before the season begins. Yes, the Penguins can and will use waivers to their advantage, but given the context, trading a contract or two for picks and cap space makes a lot of sense.

So who is most likely to get the boot?

Lars Eller

If Pens fans have heard one name in trade discussion boards this offseason, it has probably been Eller’s. Eller, 35, is coming off of a 15-goal, 31-point 2023-24 campaign, and the pending 2025 UFA makes $2.45 million.

He was more than serviceable as a third-line center for the Penguins last season, and he is someone any team in contention would definitely be interested in acquiring to shore up their depth. Given the Penguins’ logjam at the center position in the bottom-six – Eller, Kevin Hayes, Blake Lizotte, Cody Glass, and Noel Acciari are all natural centers – getting Eller’s expiring contract off the books makes a lot of sense, especially since it would, more than likely, net them some valuable draft capital. There are also younger options in the bottom-six, and Eller is one of the Penguins’ oldest players.

Don’t be surprised if Eller is not in the opening night lineup for the Penguins.

Noel Acciari

Injuries thwarted much of Acciari’s 2023-24 season, but in the games he did play, he looked a bit out-of-place at center. GM and POHO Kyle Dubas has remarked that the Penguins’ center depth for the upcoming campaign will give Acciari the chance to play the wing, where he is more comfortable and where his game is more conducive to success.

However, just like Eller, the logjam of bottom-six forwards makes Acciari, 32, expendable. Although his penalty-killing was a positive for the Penguins, his four goals and seven points in 55 games – as well as his injury concerns – could be supplanted with younger, more energized and durable legs in the bottom-six.

Although Acciari isn’t exactly the most attractive option for teams, his $2 million cap hit is low enough that it may generate some interest from teams looking for a solid defensive forward with some offensive upside for their fourth line.

Tristan Jarry

This one is the least likely of the three to happen before the puck drops on October 9 against the New York Rangers. However, make no mistake: Jarry has already been on the trade block, and, depending on how the rest of the offseason transpires, a trade is certainly not out of the realm of possibility.

As it stands, the Penguins have Jarry for four more seasons at an AAV of $5.375 million. They signed goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic to a two-year deal, $5 million deal earlier this summer, and they have two goaltending prospects – Joel Blomqvist and Sergei Murashov – either NHL ready or not far off.

Also, the fact that Nedeljkovic started a meaningless final regular season game against the New York Islanders instead of Jarry – despite starting nearly every game for the Penguins in their failed playoff push at the end of the 2023-24 season – could be indicative of a general lack of confidence in Jarry from coaching and management.

If the Penguins can find a suitor for Jarry without surrendering futures in the process, a trade probably happens, as it would open up a large chunk of cap space for them to make the NHL roster better. But because his value is currently at a low, it may be in the team’s best interest to wait it out a bit and see if Jarry can bolster his value.

So – again – a trade is unlikely before the start of the season, but the possibility of a trade at any point this season will be a storyline to watch.

Also: It wouldn’t come as a huge surprise if the Penguins tried to move a defenseman before the start of the season. Although Dubas showed last offseason that he values defensive depth, the team will, presumably, have Matt Grzelcyk, Ryan Graves, Sebastian Aho, John Ludvig, Ryan Shea, and John St. Ivany battling for three spots.

Graves’ contract and disastrous 2023-24 season make him unlikely to move, and St. Ivany, Ludvig, and Shea are on two-way contracts. There is little chance that Kris Letang, Erik Karlsson, or Marcus Pettersson will be moved before the season, even as Pettersson is a pending UFA.

Because of these factors, waivers are a more likely possibility if moves are made. Still, someone like Aho or one of the Penguins’ younger defensemen could potentially be flipped for assets if a deal comes along that makes sense.

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